El Nino Watch
El Nino, water, heat, flood, cyclone/wind, sea state, air quality, marine heat and news. Each has its own thresholds and a cap on how far it can raise the overall level.
Koh Samui watch
Each factor is scored 0-4 from real data. Some factors are "context" and can only raise the overall level a little (the cap).
| Factor | Main data | Cap in overall level | Critical? |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Nino (enso) | NOAA ONI + weekly Nino 3.4, CPC status, IRI | 2 Prepare | yes |
| Water (water) | ERA5 rain vs 1991-2020 normal, ECMWF seasonal, PWA notices, dam | 3 Act (4 only via rule R4b or confirmed shortage) | yes |
| Heat (heat) | Open-Meteo feels-like forecast 7 days, ERA5 30-day Tmax anomaly | 3 Act | yes |
| Flood (flood) | Open-Meteo 3-day rain, island rain gauges, TMD warnings, past 7 days of rain | 3 Act | yes |
| Cyclone / wind (cyclone_wind) | GDACS cyclones, forecast gusts, TMD storm warnings | 3 Act (4 via rule R4a) | yes |
| Sea state (sea_state) | Open-Meteo marine waves 72 h, TMD Gulf wave warnings | 3 Act | yes |
| Air (air) | CAMS PM2.5 (Open-Meteo) | 3 Act | no |
| Marine heat (marine_heat) | Coral Reef Watch DHW | 1 Watch | no |
| News (news) | Keyword counts in news and social feeds | 1 Watch, and only with another factor >= 1 | no |
"Critical" factors: if one has no data or stale data, the overall level is Unknown.