El Nino Watch

Factor: air quality (PM2.5, haze)

The worse of the last 24-hour average of PM2.5 and the worst 24-hour average forecast for the next 72 hours, scored with the Thai PCD bands.

Koh Samui watch

Data: modelled PM2.5 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), through Open-Meteo. It is a model, not a monitoring station: compare with Air4Thai (the Thai Pollution Control Department network) when in doubt.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Samui is usually clean, but El Nino years bring haze from fires in Indonesia and Malaysia (2015, 2019).

Thresholds

PM2.5, 24 h averageThai PCD bandFactor level
37.5 µg/m³ or lessvery good to moderate0 Normal
37.6 to 75starting to affect health1 Watch
75.1 to 125affects health2 Prepare
above 125affects health (above 125.4 = US EPA "very unhealthy")3 Act

Cap: 3. Not a critical factor. Stale after 12 h without an update.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)