El Nino Watch

Factor: media and social signal

Counts news and social posts from the last 14 days that mention water shortage or flooding on Samui or in Thailand. Low weight, never a trigger on its own.

Koh Samui watch

A simple keyword count (English, French and Thai words for water shortage, drought, flood, landslide) over the app's news and social feeds.

It is deliberately weak: keyword counts can be fooled by old stories, rumours or articles about somewhere else. So it can only add Watch, and only when another factor is already at 1 or more (rule R2). Its main job: point you to local reports worth reading.

Thresholds

Mentions in 14 daysFactor level
fewer than 3 about Samui and fewer than 10 about Thailand0 Normal
3 or more about Samui, or 10 or more about Thailand1 Watch (only counts if another factor >= 1)

Cap: 1. Also: 2 or more reports of water shortage on Samui can confirm a water level 4 when rain is already at level 3.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)