El Nino Watch

Factor: sea state (ferries, isolation)

The highest forecast wave height near Samui over 72 hours, plus TMD Gulf wave warnings. High seas stop ferries and cut the island off.

Koh Samui watch

Main measure: the maximum significant wave height forecast for the next 72 hours (Open-Meteo Marine). A TMD high-wave warning for the Gulf raises it to at least 1. Andaman-only warnings are ignored: they do not concern Samui.

If the wave forecast is missing but a TMD rough-sea warning is in force, the factor shows 1 Watch.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Above 2 m, small boats stay in port and ferries may be cancelled: the island is then cut off (supplies, evacuation, water by barge). Only the airport remains, with limited capacity.

Thresholds

Max wave height (72 h)Factor level
below 1.5 m0 Normal
1.5 to 2 m1 Watch
2 to 3 m (small boats stay in port)2 Prepare
3 m or more3 Act

Cap: 3. Critical factor. Stale after 24 h without a marine forecast update.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)