El Nino Watch

Exit plan (leaving the island)

The "Leave the island" view: can you leave, when, how, and what to do first. It checks waves, wind, TMD sea warnings, cyclones and heavy rain, and lists the routes.

Koh Samui watch

Samui can only be left by sea (car ferries, passenger boats, catamarans) or by air. The exit plan gathers:

  • Signals now: waves, TMD Gulf sea warnings, wind gusts, tropical cyclones, heavy rain. Each is ok, caution, blocked or unknown.
  • Departure windows for the next 7 days (see Departure windows).
  • Routes: Seatran and Raja car ferries to Donsak, Lomprayah boats to Donsak or Chumphon, flights from Samui (USM) or Surat Thani (URT), trains from Surat Thani. Only official operator sites are linked; no schedules or prices (they change).
  • Checklist before leaving: documents, cash, medicine, confirming the crossing, telling someone, charged phone, go-bag, and securing the house.

Missing or stale data shows as unknown, never ok.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Leave early, while ferries and flights still run. When the sea closes, everyone tries to fly out at once and seats run out.

Thresholds

SignalCautionBlocked
Waves (daily max)2 m or more3 m or more
TMD Gulf sea bulletinwave warning in force"small boats should stay ashore"
Wind gusts (daily max)50 km/h or more (Beaufort 7)75 km/h or more (Beaufort 9)
Tropical cycloneany within 800 kmwithin 300 km, or orange/red within 800 km
Heavy rainTMD heavy-rain bulletin or 90 mm/24 h forecast150 mm/24 h forecast

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)