El Nino Watch
One overall level for the island, from 0 Normal to 4 Leave, computed from 9 factors with documented rules. Each factor shows its value, threshold and source.
Koh Samui watch
The Samui page turns many numbers into one answer: how worried should you be, and what should you do now?
How it works, in short:
Every factor shows its value, the threshold that applies, the explanation, the source and the time of the data. Nothing is hidden in a black-box score.
The level is a planning aid, not an official warning. When Thai authorities (TMD, DDPM, the province) issue orders, follow them first.
| Level | Name | Means | What to do (summary) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Normal | Nothing abnormal expected on the island. | Keep a basic 3-day stock; review the Preparedness page once a month. |
| 1 | Watch | Something is building up somewhere (El Nino, a rain deficit, a distant storm). | Check the page daily, follow TMD warnings, build 7 days of drinking water, note ferry and airport contacts. |
| 2 | Prepare | A real hazard is likely in the coming days or season. | Build 14 days of self-sufficiency, fill the cistern, charge batteries, copy documents, decide your departure threshold. |
| 3 | Act | A hazard is here or imminent, or two hazards combine. | Apply the matching scenario, stock water and fuel, pack the go-bag, check ferries and flights every morning. |
| 4 | Leave | Safety or basic supplies are directly threatened. | Leave while ferries and flights run, or follow the authorities (DDPM 1784). |
Full action lists are on the Learn page ("What to do at each level") and on the Samui page. The engine calls level 1 "vigilance" internally; it is shown as Watch.