El Nino Watch

The Places page: comparing where to live

Compares candidate towns side by side: current conditions and warnings, 1991-2020 climate, 2050 projections, natural hazards, El Nino sensitivity and official travel advice. Every number shows its date and source.

Data and trust

The page answers "which of these places would suit us best, and for what?" with data, not opinion.

  • Place cards: the current level (0-4, same names as the Samui watch) with the conditions right now. See Place level (current, 0-4) and Current conditions (model analysis) and forecast badges.
  • Comparison matrix: long-term exposure per dimension (heat, cold, water, flood, storms, air, wildfire, earthquakes, El Nino sensitivity, trend to 2050), each cell with its value, rule and source. See Comparison matrix: exposure scores (0-4).
  • Charts: monthly climate (temperature, rain, sunshine) and the change expected by 2050. See Monthly climate charts (1991-2020 normals) and Chart: change by 2050 per place.
  • Ranking with sliders: you choose how much each dimension matters. See Ranking and weights (decision aid).
  • Official advisories: what the UK, US and French governments currently say about each country. See Official travel advisories.

The places were geocoded against OpenStreetMap and GeoNames, and their admin area checked (see Adding a place (search, server list, personal list)).

Why it matters for Koh Samui

A move is a big, slow decision. The page keeps the facts, their dates and their limits in one place, so the discussion is about what matters to you, not about which numbers are right.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)