El Nino Watch
One level per place for NOW and the next 7 days, from 9 factors (heat, cold, water, flood, storm, air, wildfire, earthquakes, official warnings). Same names as the Samui watch: Normal, Watch, Prepare, Act, Leave.
Hazards
Each factor is scored 0-4 from real data and shows its value, threshold, source and date. The overall level is:
For Maenam the detailed Koh Samui watch (with water supply, sea state, ferries...) remains the reference; its level is shown on the Maenam card.
The current level tells you how each place is doing today. It is not a verdict on the place: a Russian winter cold snap or a Thai dry spell are normal parts of those climates. Use the matrix for the long view.
| Factor | Watch (1) | Prepare (2) | Act (3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat: highest feels-like, 7 days | >= 39 °C | >= 41 °C (1-2 days) | >= 41 °C on 3+ days (>= 54 °C: Leave) |
| Cold: lowest feels-like, 7 days | <= -10 °C | <= -28 °C | <= -40 °C (<= -48 °C: Leave) |
| Water, tropical profile (Maenam): ERA5 rain, 90 days, % of normal | < 75% | < 60% | < 40% and >= 100 mm short |
| Water, temperate profile (Normandy, Vladimir): 365 d / 180 d / 90 d, % of normal | < 85% / < 75% / < 60% | < 75% / < 60% / < 35% | < 65% / < 50% / never on 90 d alone; >= 100 mm short |
| Flood: forecast rain / river | > 35 mm in 24 h, or river above its 99th percentile | > 90 mm/24 h or 150 mm/72 h, or a 2-year river flood | >= 150 mm/24 h or 250 mm/72 h, or a 10-year river flood |
| Storm: forecast gusts / cyclones | >= 75 km/h, or a cyclone within 800 km | >= 89 km/h | >= 118 km/h, or orange/red cyclone within 500 km (300 km: Leave) |
| Air: PM2.5 24 h mean | > 37.5 | > 75 | > 125 µg/m³ |
| Wildfire: VIIRS detections | >= 3 within 100 km | >= 25 within 50 km | >= 100 within 50 km |
| Earthquakes, 30 days, 300 km | M5+ within 150 km | M6+ (aftershocks possible) | M7+ (capped at 2 overall) |
| Official warnings | yellow / region named | orange / severe wording | red |
Critical factors: heat, water, flood, storm. A factor whose data is too old cannot say Normal: it becomes unknown.