El Nino Watch

Current conditions (model analysis) and forecast badges

The "now" values are Open-Meteo model analyses for the place (not a weather station). Future days are marked Forecast. Every value shows its time and source.

Data and trust

Badges tell you what kind of number you are looking at:

  • Model: a model analysis for the current hour, the best estimate for the exact point, not a thermometer reading.
  • Forecast: a value for a future date; it changes with each update (every few hours).
  • Reanalysis: ERA5, observations blended by a model after the fact, about 5 days behind.
  • Observed: satellite fire detections, earthquakes.
  • Bulletin: an official warning text.

Feels-like temperature combines air temperature, humidity and wind (heat index in the tropics, wind chill in the cold).

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Comparing a Thai noon with a Russian night is misleading: the card shows each place's local time. Look at the 7-day range rather than a single hour.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)