El Nino Watch

Comparison matrix: exposure scores (0-4)

Each cell scores how exposed a place is to one hazard over the long term, 0 very low to 4 very high, with the value, the rule used, a note and the source.

Hazards

The matrix uses long-term data only: the 1991-2020 climate normals (ERA5), the 2050 projections (CMIP6), the earthquake record since 1976 (USGS), a year of modelled air quality (CAMS) and the curated El Nino sensitivity. Today's weather does not change it.

Hover or tap a cell for its value, rule and note. Cells without data say so and are left out of the ranking.

Rows: Heat stress (days with feels-like above 35 °C), Cold / winter severity, Water / drought (aridity), Flood (heavy rain, river, coast), Storms / cyclones, Air quality (PM2.5, yearly mean), Wildfire (fire-weather months), Earthquakes (USGS record since 1976), ENSO sensitivity (how much El Nino reaches a place), Climate trend to 2050 (CMIP6), Data coverage per place.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

It shows trade-offs at a glance: one place is hot, another cold, a third far from the sea but on a river.

Thresholds

ScoreLabelColour
0very lowgreen
1lowyellow
2moderateorange
3highred
4very highmagenta
--no datagrey, dashed

Exposure scale: 0 very low, 1 low, 2 moderate, 3 high, 4 very high. Higher = more exposed. The colour of the matrix cell follows the same scale.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)