El Nino Watch

Climatology and the 1991-2020 baseline

The "normal" used to compute anomalies: the average over a 30-year reference period, usually 1991-2020, for each place and each day or month.

Indices

A climatology is the long-term average of a variable for each calendar day or month. The World Meteorological Organization's current standard period is 1991-2020, and many products in this app use it:

  • NOAA's weekly Nino SST values (OISST, 1991-2020 base).
  • The Koh Samui rain and temperature normals (ERA5, 1991-2020), used for "% of normal".
  • Climate Reanalyzer's daily SST charts.

Some indices use other references: NOAA's ONI uses centred 30-year base periods updated every 5 years; MEI.v2 uses 1980-2018; the BoM SOI uses 1933-1992.

Why it matters: the ocean has warmed since 1991-2020, so a fixed old baseline makes everything look "above normal". That is one reason NOAA now uses RONI.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)