El Nino Watch

Rain as % of normal

Rain over the last 30, 60, 90 or 180 days divided by the 1991-2020 average for the same calendar days. 60% means 40% less rain than usual.

Koh Samui watch

The app adds up the rain observed on Samui (ERA5 reanalysis, about 5 days behind) over several windows, and compares each with the 1991-2020 ERA5 normal for exactly the same days of the year.

  • 100% = a normal amount.
  • Below 75% = drier than normal (the water factor starts at Watch).
  • Above 100% = wetter than normal.

Short windows (30 days) react fast but a single storm can swing them. Long windows (180 days) show the slow deficit that empties reservoirs.

How to read it

Look at both the % and the millimetres: 40% of a dry-season normal of 60 mm is only 36 mm missing, while 60% of a November normal can be over 100 mm missing.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)