El Nino Watch
Rain is coloured by % of the 1991-2020 normal (orange under 75%, red under 60%, blue above 125%), heat by feels-like degrees and heat days, dry spells by length. The last row is the median of ENSO-neutral years, the yardstick.
Koh Samui watch
Each event's water year is reduced to six numbers for Koh Samui, all from the ERA5 grid cell that holds Maenam (ERA5 reanalysis):
The neutral median row is the median of the same numbers over the water years whose ONI stayed between -0.5 and +0.5 °C from autumn to spring (no El Nino and no La Nina): what a "normal" year looks like in the same data. The count of years (n) is shown.
Read down a column to compare events, and against the neutral row to see what is unusual. A cell shown as "--" with a "loading" note means a month of the ERA5 history is not stored yet; the number is not estimated.
The Feb-Apr column is the one to watch: in 6 of the 7 events it was under 60% of normal, and that is the window when Samui ran short of water in 2016 and 2024.
| Colour | Rain (% of normal) | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| red | below 60% | serious deficit: the live water factor calls this "prepare" |
| orange | 60% to 74% | deficit: the live water factor calls this "watch" |
| plain | 75% to 125% | near normal |
| blue | above 125% | wet: the monsoon over-delivered (floods possible) |
Heat cells go orange from 39 °C feels-like and red from 40 °C; heat days orange from 3, red from 7; dry spells orange from 30 days, red from 45. Thresholds match the live factors and the takeaways.