El Nino Watch
El Nino strength is usually graded by the peak 3-month Nino 3.4 anomaly: about +0.5 weak, +1.0 moderate, +1.5 strong, +2.0 and above very strong ("super" is an informal media word).
El Nino basics
Scientists grade an event by how warm the Nino 3.4 region gets, averaged over three months (ONI or, since February 2026, RONI).
"Super El Nino" is not an official NOAA category. Media use it for the very strongest events, roughly +2.0 °C and above (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16).
A stronger El Nino makes the usual impacts more likely, but never certain. The CPC wrote in September 2026 that with an event this strong "the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Nino are larger, though not guaranteed".
| 3-month index | Common label | This app (ENSO factor) |
|---|---|---|
| below +0.5 °C | neutral | 0 Normal |
| +0.5 to +0.9 °C | weak | 1 Watch |
| +1.0 to +1.4 °C | moderate | 1 Watch |
| +1.5 to +1.9 °C | strong | 2 Prepare |
| +2.0 °C and above | very strong ("super" in the media) | 2 Prepare (the ENSO factor never goes above 2) |
The weak/moderate/strong/very strong bands are the conventional ones used with NOAA ONI tables. The app's ENSO factor uses ONI (and the weekly Nino 3.4 value) with these bands.