El Nino Watch

Past strong El Nino events

The three strongest El Ninos since 1950 by ONI peaked at about +2.1 °C (1982-83), +2.4 °C (1997-98) and +2.6 °C (2015-16). 2023-24 peaked at about +2.0 °C.

El Nino basics

The Overview page compares the current event with these past events. Values below are the peak 3-month ONI and RONI from the NOAA CPC data files (downloaded 2026-09-24). ONI and RONI differ because RONI removes the warming of the whole tropics (see RONI (Relative Oceanic Nino Index)).

Notes:

  • 1982-83: one of the strongest on record; it was not predicted in advance.
  • 1997-98: one of the strongest; TMD notes it developed fast and brought drought to Thailand and fires in Indonesia and Malaysia (haze).
  • 2015-16: the highest ONI peak in the record; severe drought in Thailand and haze across the region.
  • 2023-24: strong by ONI (about +2.0) but only moderate by RONI (+1.4), because the whole tropical ocean was unusually warm at the time. This is exactly why NOAA moved to RONI.

Thresholds

EventPeak ONI (season)Peak RONI (season)
1982-83+2.14 (DJF 1983)+2.40 (DJF 1983)
1997-98+2.37 (NDJ 1997)+2.28 (NDJ 1997)
2015-16+2.59 (NDJ 2015)+2.25 (NDJ 2015)
2023-24+1.99 (NDJ 2023)+1.42 (OND 2023)

Source: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt and RONI.ascii.txt. Recent values can be revised for up to two months.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)