El Nino Watch

Reported incidents vs measured data

An incident is a place where one or more sources (news, agencies, official accounts) report flooding. It is a report, not a measurement: the confidence chip says how well it is confirmed.

Hazards

Measured means an instrument recorded a number: a rain gauge, a river level sensor, a satellite. Reported means a person or an outlet said it: a news article, an official post, a social media account.

Reports are fast (often hours before any official map) but can be wrong, late, duplicated or about a different place with a similar name. The app groups every report about the same place into one incident and lists each source with its outlet, time and link, so you can check them yourself.

How an incident is built: every news, social and official item of the last 72 hours that names both a hazard (flood, flash flood, landslide, storm, heavy rain, in English or Thai) and a Thai place (77 provinces plus major cities, islands and airports) is grouped by place and hazard. A new incident starts after 48 hours without a report for that place.

Confidence (counted in independent outlets: "Bangkok Post", bangkokpost.com and @BangkokPostNews count once):

  • High: an official item (agency, province, city) reports it, or 3 or more outlets do.
  • Medium: 2 independent outlets, none official.
  • Low: a single outlet so far. Treat as unconfirmed.

Severity (from the words of the reports):

  • Red: a report mentions a disaster declaration or disaster zone, a state of emergency, evacuations, "all districts", or deaths.
  • Orange: a headline reports flooding, a flash flood or a landslide.
  • Info: the hazard is only mentioned (in a summary, or heavy rain / storm without a flood report).

How to read it

On the map, a bigger circle = more sources, colour = severity (red severe, orange moderate). Click a circle to see every source. "First seen" = the oldest report, "last seen" = the newest.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

During the September 2026 floods, news reported Bangkok and Pattaya flooding before any gauge-based map. Reports give the where; measurements give the how much.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)