El Nino Watch

Trade winds

Steady winds that blow from east to west along the equator. They push warm surface water towards Asia. When they weaken, El Nino can grow.

El Nino basics

Near the equator, surface winds normally blow from the east (they are called "easterlies"). They drag the warm top layer of the ocean west, so the water piles up near Indonesia and the sea level there is higher.

When the trade winds weaken, the warm water sloshes back east. That is the start of El Nino. A burst of wind from the west (a Westerly wind burst (WWB)) can give it an extra push.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)