El Nino Watch

Oceanic Kelvin wave

A slow, huge underwater wave that travels east along the equator in 2-3 months. A "downwelling" one carries warm water east and can start or boost an El Nino.

El Nino basics

When the trade winds weaken or a westerly wind burst blows, the thick warm layer in the western Pacific starts to slide east along the equator. It moves as a wave that you cannot see at the surface (the sea surface rises only a few centimetres) but that pushes the Thermocline down by tens of metres.

  • A downwelling Kelvin wave pushes the thermocline down. Cold water cannot come up, so the surface warms. It favours El Nino.
  • An upwelling Kelvin wave does the opposite: the thermocline rises and the surface cools.

A Kelvin wave takes about 2 to 3 months to cross the Pacific. That delay is useful: forecasters see it coming.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)