El Nino Watch
Change between 1991-2020 and 2036-2050 in mean temperature and hot days (> 35 °C), from 6 high-resolution climate models on a high-emission pathway. The model range is shown.
Forecasts and bulletins
The Open-Meteo climate API gives daily data from 6 CMIP6 HighResMIP models, bias-corrected on ERA5-Land (10 km). Their future forcing is as close to the high-emission RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5 pathway as CMIP6 allows; before 2050 the scenarios differ little. The daily mean is taken as (max + min) / 2. Hot day = model daily maximum above 35 °C (air temperature, not feels-like).
A home is for decades. Warming reduces cold hazards in Russia but adds heat everywhere, most painfully where it is already hot and humid.
| Warming (ensemble mean) | Exposure |
|---|---|
| < 0.75 °C | 0 |
| 0.75-1.25 °C | 1 |
| 1.25-1.75 °C | 2 |
| 1.75-2.5 °C | 3 |
| >= 2.5 °C | 4 |
At least 2 if hot days rise by 10 or more per year, at least 3 if by 30 or more. Fewer frost days are shown but not scored. Exposure scale: 0 very low, 1 low, 2 moderate, 3 high, 4 very high. Higher = more exposed. The colour of the matrix cell follows the same scale.