El Nino Watch

Chart: change by 2050 per place

Bars show the ensemble-mean change 2036-2050 vs 1991-2020 for each place; the thin range is the lowest and highest of the 6 models.

Forecasts and bulletins

Read the bar for the average model answer and the range for the uncertainty. Precipitation changes are in % and often disagree in sign between models: treat them as uncertain.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)