El Nino Watch

Storms / cyclones

Days per year with gusts of 75 km/h or more (ERA5 1991-2020). Tropical-cyclone history is added to the note with sources.

Hazards

ERA5 gusts are for a ~30 km cell and underestimate local gusts on exposed coasts and hills. Tropical cyclones are rare events that 30 years of gust statistics do not capture well, so documented landfalls near a place are listed in the note (for Maenam: Typhoon Gay 1989 and Tropical Storm Pabuk 2019). Current cyclones come from GDACS in the place level.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Storms cut power, block roads and ferries and damage roofs. On an island they can isolate you for days.

Thresholds

Gust days (>= 75 km/h) per yearExposure
< 0.50
0.5-21
2-52
5-153
>= 154

Exposure scale: 0 very low, 1 low, 2 moderate, 3 high, 4 very high. Higher = more exposed. The colour of the matrix cell follows the same scale.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)