El Nino Watch

Seasonal outlook per place (ECMWF SEAS5)

Forecast monthly temperature and rain anomalies for the next 6 months, relative to the model's own normal.

Forecasts and bulletins

An anomaly is the difference from normal: +1 °C means one degree warmer than usual for that month. Seasonal forecasts give tendencies, not daily weather; their skill is highest in the tropics and during strong El Nino years, lowest in mid-latitude winters.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)