El Nino Watch
A 6-month forecast of monthly rain and temperature for Samui from the European centre's seasonal model, as a % of the model's own normal.
Forecasts and bulletins
The Samui page shows the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast (through Open-Meteo) for the next months. Each month shows expected rain as a percentage of the model's own normal for that month.
Seasonal models do not predict individual storms or rainy days. They predict whether a whole month is likely to be wetter or drier than usual. Coarse grid cells (tens of km) cannot resolve a small island, so treat it as a regional tendency.
Below 100% = drier than normal; below 80% for the next 3 months raises the water factor to at least Watch.