El Nino Watch

River discharge (GloFAS)

Daily river flow in m3/s from the Copernicus GloFAS model for the largest river cell near the place, compared with its 2001-2020 flood levels.

Hazards

GloFAS is a global hydrological model on a 5 km grid. For each place we search 7 x 7 cells (about 15 km) and keep the one with the largest flow, then compute from 2001-2020:

  • the 99th percentile of daily flow,
  • the 2-year flood (median of the yearly maxima),
  • the 10-year flood (90th percentile of the yearly maxima).

The forecast (30 days, ensemble) is compared with these levels. Model flows can differ from gauges, especially for small or regulated rivers and estuaries.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Spring snowmelt floods (Russia) and long rainy spells (Normandy) show up here days to weeks ahead.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)