El Nino Watch

TMD bulletins in English

The Thai-language TMD warnings summarised in English from explicit keywords: hazard, regions, dates.

Data and trust

Each TMD bulletin gets `summary_en`, e.g. 'TMD bulletin No. 7 (223/2569): heavy to very heavy rain -- North, lower Northeast, Central, Bangkok, East, South; 24-27 Sep 2026', and `from` / `until` dates read from the Thai text (Buddhist year 2569 = 2026).

Limits. Anything the keywords do not cover is only in the original Thai bulletin (linked).

How to read it

The hazard words and region names are matched literally in the Thai text (no machine translation). 'South' without 'Gulf coast' covers the whole southern region, Samui included. The number in brackets is TMD's issue number.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

A TMD heavy-rain bulletin for the South puts the flood factor at Watch; a Gulf wave warning affects the ferries.

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)