Latest monthly NASA GEOS-S2S plume charts for the Nino regions and the IOD.
Forecasts and bulletins
Status key gmao_s2s_plume {release, posted_at, plumes: [{index, title, url}], how_to_read}.
Limits. Images only, monthly.
How to read it
Thick red line = average forecast; dashed lines = individual starts. Above +0.5 = El Nino, above +1.5 = strong. For the IOD, above +0.4 = positive IOD (drier SE Asia).
Why it matters for Koh Samui
A NASA opinion on how long and how strong El Nino stays.