El Nino Watch

Why numbers disagree between sources

Different datasets, baselines, averaging windows, regions and update times. A difference of a few tenths of a degree between El Nino indices is normal.

Data and trust

Common reasons two numbers for "the same thing" differ:

  • Different datasets: ERSST (monthly ONI) vs OISST (weekly and daily Nino 3.4) vs MUR (map layer). They use different satellites and methods.
  • Different baselines: 1991-2020, a sliding 30-year period, 1980-2018... (see Climatology and the 1991-2020 baseline).
  • Different windows: a day, a week, a month, 3 months, 5 months (JMA).
  • Different regions: Nino 3 (JMA) vs Nino 3.4 (NOAA).
  • Different scales: NOAA SOI vs BoM SOI (about 10 times larger); Thai AQI vs US AQI.
  • Model vs measurement: a model estimate (CAMS, ERA5, forecasts) vs a station or buoy.
  • Timing: one source already includes last week, another does not yet.
  • Revisions: recent ONI and RONI values can change for up to two months.

When sources disagree, look at the direction they share (all warming? all dry?) rather than one exact number.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)