El Nino Watch

Satellite sea level anomaly (NOAA CoastWatch)

Daily sea surface height from radar satellites, averaged over key Pacific boxes, the Gulf of Thailand and the sea around Samui.

Data and trust

Radar altimeters (Sentinel-6, Jason-3, SWOT, Sentinel-3, CryoSat-2) measure the height of the sea surface to a few centimetres. NOAA CoastWatch merges them into a daily 0.25 deg map. Twice a day the app averages the last 15 days over 6 boxes.

Limits. Coastal boxes (Samui, Gulf) are less accurate because altimeters struggle near land. The server is sometimes slow or down; the source then shows an error, never old numbers as new.

How to read it

Values are cm above the DTU15 mean sea surface (a 1993-2012 reference), so they include roughly 8-10 cm of long-term sea level rise. On 2026-09-22 the Nino 3.4 box was +37 cm and the western Pacific -8 cm.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

El Nino is a sloshing of the Pacific: warm water piles up in the east (sea level up) and drains from the west (sea level down) weeks before surface temperatures peak. Around Samui, higher sea level adds to storm-surge and high-tide flooding risk.

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)