El Nino Watch

NASA GRACE-FO drought maps

Weekly NASA maps of groundwater and soil-moisture drought over Asia.

Data and trust

The GRACE-FO satellites weigh the water stored on land by measuring tiny changes in Earth's gravity. NASA Goddard blends this with a land model and the University of Nebraska's Drought Mitigation Center publishes weekly maps. The app keeps the Asia maps: shallow groundwater, root-zone soil moisture and surface soil moisture.

Limits. The model spreads GRACE's coarse (~300 km) measurement to 0.25 deg, so small islands like Samui are not resolved. Maps are posted weekly (Monday date).

How to read it

Colours are wetness percentiles compared with 1948-2012: dark red = drier than 98 % of past weeks (2nd percentile), red <= 5, orange <= 10, tan <= 20, yellow <= 30, white 30-70 = normal, light to dark blue = wetter than normal.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

El Nino droughts empty soils and aquifers over months. On 2026-09-21 the map showed much of Thailand and Indochina in the red/dark-red classes. Groundwater drought lasts long after the rains return and matters for Samui's water supply.

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)