El Nino Watch
NASA's own seasonal model forecast of the Nino regions and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Data and trust
NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office runs the GEOS-S2S-3 coupled model several times a month and publishes plume charts once a month: Nino 3.4, 3, 4, 1+2 and the Indian Ocean Dipole for the next 9 months.
Limits. Images only: NASA does not publish the numbers in a machine-readable form, so none are extracted. Released early each month (September 2026 posted on 2 Sep).
Each dashed line is one model start date, the thick red line their average. Values are degC from normal. The September 2026 release keeps Nino 3.4 near +3.5 to +3.8 through December before a slow decline.
A third independent forecast next to NOAA/IRI and ECMWF. The Indian Ocean Dipole chart matters too: a positive IOD together with El Nino deepens drought over Southeast Asia.