El Nino Watch
NASA GISS's monthly global temperature record, land plus ocean, since 1880.
Data and trust
The Goddard Institute for Space Studies combines thousands of weather stations and ship/buoy sea temperatures into a global average and publishes how far each month is from the 1951-1980 average.
Limits. Monthly, published around the 10th of the next month, and recent months can be revised slightly. It is a global average, not a forecast for Samui.
Numbers are degC above the 1951-1980 average. August 2026 was +1.40. The yearly tropical band (24S-24N) is published only once a year is complete.
El Nino releases ocean heat into the air: the global number usually jumps 0.1-0.2 degC a few months after an El Nino peaks. It tells you how exceptional 2026-2027 is.