El Nino Watch
Every active West Pacific / South China Sea tropical storm from the official WMO regional centre in Tokyo, with its 5-day forecast.
Hazards
The Japan Meteorological Agency is the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. For each active storm we show its past track, forecast positions at 12-120 h, class (TD, TS, STS, TY), winds and the closest forecast approach to Koh Samui.
Limits. Forecast positions have large errors after 3 days (the probability circles grow to 400 km at 5 days). Only storms JMA is tracking are listed; weak lows in the Gulf may never be named.
Severity on the map: red = the track or forecast passes within 300 km of Samui, orange = within the watch radius (800 km), green = further. Winds are 10-minute averages in knots (JMA convention), lower than JTWC's 1-minute winds for the same storm.
Storms that hit the Gulf of Thailand (Harriet 1962, Gay 1989, Pabuk 2019) come from the South China Sea, mostly October to January. A storm crossing the Philippines toward Vietnam is the one to watch.