El Nino Watch
Europe's 3-month rain and temperature outlook maps for Asia, updated monthly.
Data and trust
ECMWF's SEAS5 seasonal model runs 51 times each month. The app keeps its open outlook maps for Asia: rain for the next 4 overlapping 3-month seasons and temperature for the next 2.
Limits. Probabilities, not amounts. Images only (numbers are not open). The Nino plume from ECMWF is a separate source (ecmwf_nino_plume).
Each map shows the most likely category vs 1993-2016 and how likely it is. Rain: brown/orange = drier than normal favoured (darker = more likely, up to 70-100 %), green/teal = wetter, white = no clear signal. Temperature: orange/red = warmer, blue = colder. The September 2026 run favours a dry OND 2026 over the Philippines and the South China Sea.
Samui's main rains fall October-December; a drier outlook there means water shortages later into 2027.