El Nino Watch

Copernicus Climate Pulse

Europe's daily global air and sea temperature, with the difference from 1991-2020.

Data and trust

The Copernicus Climate Change Service publishes daily global averages from the ERA5 reanalysis: air temperature at 2 m over the whole planet and sea surface temperature between 60S and 60N.

Limits. Global averages hide regional detail. The sea series is ERA5, not the OISST series shown elsewhere; small differences between them are normal.

How to read it

Values in degC plus the anomaly vs 1991-2020. On 2026-09-22: air 16.06 degC (+0.78), sea 21.03 degC (+0.71). The last 2-3 days are marked preliminary and can change slightly.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Global records usually follow a strong El Nino by a few months. This is the fastest official global thermometer (2 days behind).

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)