El Nino Watch
The regional climate centre's outlook for rain, temperature and haze in South-East Asia for the coming month and season.
Forecasts and bulletins
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (a WMO Regional Climate Centre) publishes early each month a multi-model outlook for the ASEAN region, with the El Nino context and the smoke-haze risk. We keep the overview, the 'Mainland South-East Asia' paragraphs and the maps.
Limits. Regional, not specific to Samui; national services (TMD) have the final word. Updated once a month.
Terms: below-normal / near-normal / above-normal = the lower, middle or upper third of past years. 'Model skill' says how much to trust the forecast for that area.
The official regional view of what El Nino means for rain and haze in Thailand for the next 3 months. September 2026 issue: below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperature for most of the region.