El Nino Watch

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

A pulse of tropical clouds and rain that travels east around the equator every 30-60 days.

Indices

NOAA PSL's real-time OLR MJO index (ROMI), daily: two components (mjo_romi_pc1, mjo_romi_pc2) and their combined strength mjo_romi_amplitude.

Limits. Published with a delay of about 5 days. The MJO is a short-term signal and does not change the season's overall El Nino tendency.

How to read it

Amplitude above 1 = an active MJO, below 1 = weak or absent. The two components together say where the active phase is (Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, western Pacific, ...). We store the numbers; the phase diagram is on the source page.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

When the active MJO passes over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, southern Thailand often gets a wetter 1-3 week spell, even during El Nino; its westerly wind bursts over the Pacific can also strengthen El Nino and help tropical storms form.

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)