El Nino Watch

Wildfire (fire-weather months)

A climate proxy: months per year that are both warm (mean max >= 20 °C) and dry (rain below half of evaporation). Current satellite fire detections are in the place level.

Hazards

A long fire record needs the NASA FIRMS archive, which requires a key, so the long-term score uses the climate normals as a proxy for the length of the fire-weather season. It says nothing about fuel (forests, grass) or ignition. Live detections within 100 km (VIIRS, last 24 h) are shown in the Wildfire factor of each place.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Wildfire smoke travels hundreds of km (Samui haze comes from fires elsewhere); nearby fires threaten homes and roads.

Thresholds

Warm and dry months per yearExposure
00
1-21
3-42
5-63
>= 74

Exposure scale: 0 very low, 1 low, 2 moderate, 3 high, 4 very high. Higher = more exposed. The colour of the matrix cell follows the same scale.

Sources

Related

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)