El Nino Watch

Level history and engine versions

Each history point records the engine version; points from before the 24 Sep 2026 audit are annotated.

Data and trust

`/api/local/history` rows are {evaluated_at, level, level_key, engine_version, note?}. Version 3 (from 24 September 2026) labels every value as observed / forecast / model analysis / reanalysis / bulletin. Rows written by version 2 keep their level (it was computed with the same thresholds) and carry a note saying that engine did not label forecasts.

Limits. The history keeps the last 1000 points (a new point when the level changes, otherwise every 30 minutes).

How to read it

The level line is continuous across versions; the note only warns that older explanations may have called a forecast date 'observed'.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Nothing in the history is rewritten after the fact, and nothing misleading is shown without a warning.

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)