El Nino Watch

Exit signal: heavy rain

Forecast heavy rain and TMD heavy-rain bulletins for the South.

Koh Samui watch

Maximum daily rain forecast for Samui (today + 2 days) and any TMD heavy-rain bulletin in force for the South / Gulf.

Limits. Rain forecasts are uncertain at this scale; a TMD bulletin covers a large area, not only Samui.

How to read it

A TMD bulletin or 90 mm or more in a day: caution (flooded roads to the piers and on the mainland). 150 mm or more: blocked.

Why it matters for Koh Samui

Leaving by ferry means driving to the pier and on through Surat Thani, where roads and the railway can flood in the monsoon.

Sources

ENSO status now

ONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.80 °C, JJA 2026 (previous +1.39 °C)
RONI (NOAA CPC)
+1.36 °C, JJA 2026
Nino 3.4 weekly (NOAA CPC / OISST)
+3.0 °C anomaly, week of 16 Sep 2026 (SST 29.6 °C)